Australia, known for its stunning landscapes and unique wildlife, is poised for a significant demographic shift over the next four decades. A highly anticipated report, the sixth Intergenerational Report (IGR), is set to be released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers. This report, encompassing trends in population, productivity, and spending, is expected to unveil the nation’s financial trajectory amidst a remarkable demographic transformation.
Previous estimates pegged Australia’s population at around 38.8 million by the year 2060-61. However, the imminent IGR is set to present a revised figure of 39.8 million for the same period. Notably, this updated projection already overshadows the prior expectation, signifying a significant shift in demographic trends.
Furthermore, Australians are anticipated to experience extended lifespans, with projected life expectancies of 87 years for men and 89.5 years for women by 2062-63. The report outlines that the population of individuals aged over 65 is on track to double, and the count of Australians surpassing 85 will triple.
This analysis foresees that Australians will maintain their health and wellbeing into advanced years and have fewer offspring, contributing to forthcoming economic difficulties as an increased number of individuals come to depend on government-funded services for prolonged durations.
In the upcoming four decades, the predominant contributor to population expansion is projected to be overseas migration, constituting the larger portion, and is anticipated to contribute 0.7 percentage points to the average annual population growth rate of 1.1 percent.
The government’s projection indicates a net overseas migration of 315,000 migrants in 2023-24; however, the long-term intake is predicted to gradually decrease to 235,000 individuals annually until 2062-63.
In unveiling the Intergenerational Report, the Treasurer will also put forth the argument that Australia’s current path of sluggish productivity expansion is not an inevitable outcome, provided that businesses and the wider society collaborate with the government to address the nation’s productivity challenge.
