Winter is here in Australia, and the weather is not quite what you would normally expect. Australians can expect to experience abnormal conditions over the coming winter season, with two climate systems working in conjunction to bring unseasonably dry weather.
The potential occurrence of El Niño, bringing decreased rainfall and higher temperatures, has been predicted by international climate models, although it is too soon to confirm whether or not these effects will be seen throughout the winter season.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to unfold over winter, with models indicating a shift towards a positive IOD in the upcoming weeks. As a positive IOD tends to diminish winter and spring rainfall across much of the nation, a simultaneous occurrence with El Niño would likely enhance El Niño’s drying effect.
The Bureau of Meteorology said the Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state, but is expecting an El Niño WATCH.
The agency noted that a higher probability for an El Niño to take place this year was evidenced by the fact that Australia had a much more arid Autumn and less precipitation than usual, about 70 percent below the typical levels.
With winter expected to be warmer than usual for most areas, there is still a high probability for areas in the south to experience unusually low rainfall, which could be as much as three times as likely to fall in the lowest 20 percent of records. There may also be some chilly blasts during the winter season.
El Niño and La Niña, which have a strong effect on yearly climate fluctuation, greatly impact the weather in Australia. El Niño is linked to a drawn-out period of long-term heat, while La Niña is connected with a lengthy amount of time with cold temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
